THE TROUBLE
WITH TRACKS

By Eve Stockton.

As a punter, there are many
frustrating things that can
happen to you at the gallops.
For one, you can be prevented from
placing your bet only to then watch your
horse romp home at cricket score odds.

Or your anchor can be scratched at the
barrier, leaving you with the substitute.
Or, after several hours spent studying
the form, you find a horse you love. You
head to the track with a song in your
heart, knowing that you have found
yourself a good thing. Then, having
backed the object of your affection to
the hilt and watched it spring out of the
barrier like a startled gazelle, your
paramour is denied its winning chance
because of bias on the track.

In Melbourne, track bias can be a
punter’s nightmare. And so often, the
bias of the day isn’t evident until half
way through the card. By which time
your useless quaddie ticket is already
littering the lawn. If only there was a
way to eliminate it altogether… and if
wishes were horses we’d all be
millionaires.

As long as races are run by horses and
not machines, and as long as the sun
shines, clouds make rain and tracks are
made from grass and sand and soil
instead of concrete, there will always be
track bias.

Sometimes it’s barely noticeable. On a
good day, there isn’t any bias at all. But
on a day when the rail is out 9 metres or
more and it has been raining all week,
you can expect that the track isn’t going
to run as fairly as you might like.

Some horses, perhaps many of them,
will be disadvantaged on the day.
Others will have a dream run and glide
to the line like they’re wearing rocketpowered
roller-blades. But how can we
decide before the races which ones
might be which?

Bias extends to much more than
whether a track is rated good or heavy.
On some days, the draw can
significantly affect a horse’s chance of
winning. Barrier strike rates can give
you a clue, but there have been days at
Caulfield (perhaps only once every few
years) when the only horses who stood
a winning chance were drawn the
extreme outside.

If you were on course, you could recover
your losses by backing any horse in
barrier 15 for the rest of the day. Offcourse,
following the pattern and
punting accordingly becomes a little
more problematic.

Then there’s the issue of which horses
will lead and which will fall behind to
wait for one last run. We must rely on
the form guide and sometimes our own
faulty memories to give us this
information.

Unfortunately, horse and rider don’t
always choose to do the same thing
they did last time and the time before
that. And some jockeys are better than
others at judging how a track is racing,
adjusting their tactics during the race to
accommodate the bias of the day.

So, when you’re picking your way
through the minefield of track bias,
what can you do to help yourself?
First, check the track rating, and then
use your common sense. If the track is
rated dead but the forecast is for 30
sunny degrees and a hot northerly
wind, perhaps you should expect an
upgrade later in the day.

Each track seems to have its own
version of what constitutes a
good/dead/slow rating, so treat the
penetrometer reading with caution. And
listen to the experts, who may have
more information about what the
penetrometer really means.

(Rumour has it this word is derived from
a woman named Penny who used to
jump up and down (or tromp) on the
track until her stiletto heels sunk into the
soil. The lower she sunk, the higher the
Penny-trompeter was. Of course, this
may not be true.)

Also, pay close attention to rail
positions. They not only change the
nature of the races but also the width of
the course. When the rail is out, horses
have further to travel around the turns,
which may not help those runners
attempting to lead all the way from
barrier 12.

Finally, bet cautiously in the first couple
of races and try to detect any bias
before committing yourself to the rest of
your day. Of course, the only thing
worse than having your horse beaten
by bias is changing your mind based
on what you think the bias is, then
watching the horse you decided not to
back (because it’s a leader and
they’ve been swooping all day) win
by five lengths. Brave Chief. Sorry,
that just slipped out.

For your own sake, if you’ve already
made up your mind to back a horse
before you get to the track BACK IT
ANYWAY. It’s the only way to be sure
you’re going to get any sleep that
night.

But the next time you see bias on the
track, use it to your advantage. Sneak
another look at the form guide before
the next race — you might just find
that forgotten horse that will save
your day, your month or your year!