By Eve Stockton

There is a question that is familiar to anyone who has ever professed to having even the slightest knowledge about anything to do with racing: "do you have a tip?"

This is never more true than during the Spring Racing Carnival, when it seems as though the world (this part of it at any rate) becomes obsessed with one race in particular and almost everyone becomes interested in having a financial stake in the event, or at least enjoying the atmosphere of the day.

Those of us who have more than a casual interest in the sport will have been tempted, when pressed, into expressing an opinion at some point or another. It's human nature. And particularly with a handicap as intriguing and difficult to assess as the Melbourne Cup, opinions among the tipsters will be as varied and prolific as roses
around the Flemington mounting yard.

The only thing we can be sure about is that some of them will be correct, and some (perhaps most) will not. That's racing.

A tipster's life is not a happy one. All tipsters, both amateur and professional, will cop some criticism from time to time. If you stick your neck out and get it wrong, someone's bound to have a go at chopping off your head. And, some would say, rightly so.

There are many factors that can affect a person's ability to select the winner of a horse race with any accuracy. For one thing, the track conditions on the day are a major factor in every race. We all know that with movable rail positions and changeable weather, racing patterns can alter swiftly in the course of an afternoon.

Just because a horse has ability does not necessarily mean it will be able to win every time it heads out on to a track. The track bias or barrier draw can be against them. They can struggle to carry the weight on a wet track, or be the victim of interference. Or they can simply be having an "off" day. For that matter, so can the jockey.

Without wishing to make too many excuses, take into consideration that some tipsters are forced by media deadlines to make their selections hours or even days before the event, sometimes without even knowing which horses will actually start. Yet, most still manage to find a few winners on the day. Under these circumstances, getting any selections right at all could be considered something of a minor miracle.

But imagine for a moment if there was one expert whose tips could be relied on with absolute certainty. Week in, week out, this guy could never lose. 100% accuracy every time. And then let's say he offered his information
free of charge to all who requested it.

For a start, once word got around, his selections would start at such short odds they'd hardly be worth backing. He might even find it hard to place a bet, since the bookie would be accepting a loss before they even wrote the ticket.

But let's say even with his reputation, he could persuade a bookie to accept his money. There would be no point watching the race, as he would already know the outcome. He would just hang around in the ring waiting for correct weight to be posted and collect whatever miserly increase on his investment was due.

And what of all the people who blindly followed his selections in pursuit of easy money? No more form guides to read, videos to watch, or Late Mail to listen for. No inside information, study or personal opinion required. In fact, don't think at all. Just take the best odds on offer. Stake in, profit out.

Where would be the fun in that?

Fortunately, no such person ever has nor ever will exist. But even if he did, chances are he wouldn't be interested in horse racing for very long, he'd do better on the stock exchange.

The whole fascination of the sport is that we are all only right some of the time. And statistically, every person who places a bet has to be right at least once in a while, even if it is only by sheer luck and coincidence.

Otherwise, we wouldn't even try. But there are many more horses that lose in a race than can win. And so it is with the punters. Still, without the losses, winning wouldn't be nearly as enjoyable.

There are ways of improving the chances of backing a winner, and following the suggestions of a tipster can help narrow the field to those runners with genuine chances. But however the tipster gets their information, by following form or an insider's whisper, the only thing they can be sure about is the runners they select may appear to have a
better chance than most. To commit to anything more than that is folly.

Racing should be considered a celebration of our fallibility. Horses are indeed only human, and humans are not perfect. We are supposed to get things wrong, there's even something about it in the bible. Part of the fascination with racing is the uncertainty.

In fact, you could even say it is absolutely essential for the continuation of the sport. If horse racing became predictable, everyone in the industry would be out of a job.

So the next time you throw away a losing ticket, think about the fact that you are contributing to the continuation of an ancient and noble sport that speaks to the very essence of our souls. It might make the loss a little easier to bear. (Or not, but it's worth a try.)

And while you're at it, think about the person next to you who had a winning ticket, the jockey's hard won victory, the trainer's satisfaction after months of preparation and the owners who will be celebrating that night. It might not be you, but someone's having a good day at the races, and that's what makes it all worthwhile.

Eve Stockton is the website administrator for www.melbournetrackreport.com

She has occasionally been known to tip a horse that has actually won.